American and Iranian negotiators convened in Geneva on Tuesday for discussions that may determine whether diplomacy or military force shapes the immediate future of the Middle East. The talks, conducted indirectly through Omani mediators, represent the Trump administration’s latest effort to constrain Tehran’s nuclear ambitions while the President maintains that military options remain available should negotiations fail.

The Iranian delegation characterized the meetings as constructive, reporting what they termed “good progress” toward establishing a framework for potential agreement. Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian state television that both sides had reached consensus on certain guiding principles, though he cautioned that substantial work remains before any final accord can be achieved.

The American delegation, led by Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Senior Advisor Jared Kushner, has not yet provided its assessment of the discussions. This silence from Washington stands in notable contrast to Tehran’s relatively optimistic public statements.

President Trump, speaking to reporters Monday evening aboard Air Force One, indicated he would participate in the negotiations indirectly. He acknowledged Iran’s reputation as a formidable negotiator but expressed confidence that the regime understands the stakes. “I don’t think they want the consequences of not making a deal,” the President stated plainly.

Those consequences have been made explicit. The President informed Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in December that absent a diplomatic resolution, the United States would support Israeli military strikes against Iran’s ballistic missile facilities. This represents a significant escalation in American support for Israeli security concerns, extending beyond the nuclear question to encompass Iran’s conventional weapons programs.

The military dimension of American policy is unmistakable. One aircraft carrier strike group currently patrols waters near Iran, with a second en route. This deployment provides both leverage for negotiators and capability for action should diplomacy collapse.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressed the American military presence with characteristic defiance during a Tuesday speech in Tehran. His reference to weapons capable of sinking warships served as a reminder that Iran has invested heavily in asymmetric capabilities designed to threaten American naval forces in the confined waters of the Persian Gulf.

Prime Minister Netanyahu has pressed the Trump administration to include restrictions on Iran’s ballistic missile program in any new agreement. These weapons pose a direct threat to Israel and American forces throughout the region, and their exclusion from the original nuclear accord remained a persistent criticism among those who opposed that agreement.

The current negotiations represent a fundamentally different approach from previous diplomatic efforts. The Trump administration has demonstrated willingness to employ military pressure as an explicit component of its negotiating strategy, while maintaining direct communication with regional allies about potential military operations.

Foreign Minister Araghchi indicated that future discussions would focus on drafting specific agreement language, a process he acknowledged would prove more detailed and complex than establishing general principles. He offered no specific timeline for completion but emphasized Iran’s readiness to devote necessary time to the process.

The talks concluded after several hours on Tuesday, with both delegations presumably returning to their respective capitals for consultation. Whether this diplomatic channel can produce an agreement that satisfies American security concerns, Israeli demands, and Iranian interests remains uncertain. What is clear is that the alternative to successful negotiation has been explicitly defined, and the military assets to enforce that alternative are already positioned in theater.

The coming weeks will reveal whether diplomacy can succeed where previous efforts failed, or whether the Middle East faces yet another military confrontation.

Related: United States Sends 100 Troops to Nigeria Amid Growing Islamist Threat