Ukraine has stepped up its efforts to retain the Russian territory in Kursk despite intense pressure from Russian and North Korean forces. They are gambling on the possibility that the region will be an important card for potential negotiations with Moscow.
After weeks of Russian and North Korean advances in Kursk Ukraine launched a minor offense on Sunday, to push back forces and maintain a grip on the roughly 300 square miles that Ukrainian troops still control.
The Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, with less than two weeks until President-elect Trump assumes office and promises to negotiate an ending to the war in Ukraine, appears to be doubling up on Kursk, both as a strategic necessity, but also as a bargaining tool, despite questions about its tactical value.
Zelensky referred to the Kursk operation as “one of our greatest victories, not only last year but throughout the entire war.”
“Russia had no choice but to remove almost 60,000 troops from the Ukrainian front to deal with this.” It’s been 5 months since our troops maintained a buffer on Russian territory as of Monday.
Ukraine is likely to be able to hold on to that territory soon. However, troops will face a formidable challenge from the 12,000 North Korean soldiers allied with Russian troops at Kursk.
Serhiy G. Grabsky, a reserve Colonel in the Ukrainian military, stated that the new offensive in Kursk was more about military strategy rather than negotiations, and was aimed at distracting Russia.
He said, “The idea behind this is to keep the Russians busy.”
Grabsky added that it was also a message for Trump.
This action shows Western alliances Ukraine has not lost its battle capability, and that it can and will fight back with or without American support.
Ukraine has lost 40 percent of its former territory in Kursk since Russia began regaining it over the fall. A senior defense official stated that Ukraine, despite the pressures, “continues” to resist the extraordinary Russian assaults in Kursk and the eastern frontlines of Ukraine.
This week, the official told journalists that Kyiv could only negotiate with Russian President Vladimir Putin if it put more pressure on Moscow.
The official stated, “We calculate that Putin will not give up anything he does not have to give up.” “Putin will be impressed when he faces negotiations and a war where he hasn’t yet achieved his goals and the costs are mounting on him. He is more likely to be reasonable.”
Ukraine’s latest offensive is targeted at the towns of Berdin, and Bolshoye Soldatskoye north of Sudzha. However, it was a limited operation, only securing three Russian villages and about nine square miles.
According to the Institute for the Study of War’s latest report, Russian military bloggers said that Ukraine has been pushed out of Berdin and that Russian forces have advanced northwest and southeast of Sudzha.
Mick Ryan, retired Australian Army Major General who tracks Ukraine and writes about it, believes that the country is likely taking advantage of an opportunity to cause casualties in Russia. Zelensky stated this week that Russia suffered 38,000 casualties at Kursk.
He said that the Russians and North Koreans suffered a large number of casualties in recent times, and they saw the opportunity to gain more ground and even move out from the front lines.
Ryan stated that Ukraine would also benefit by holding onto any territory possible if and when negotiations begin.
He said that “Russia occupies about 18 percent of Ukraine and Kursk is a lot smaller than 1 percent in Russia.” There’s a significant difference in the terrain that is held. It’s better to keep some of your enemy’s territory in a negotiation.
As Trump prepares for his inauguration on Jan. 20, Ukraine faces a ticking time bomb. In his campaign, Trump promised to end the war on his first day of office. However, he has now scaled back these ambitions.
Both sides are facing serious challenges. Russia is suffering from heavy losses and an economic recession while Ukraine struggles with manpower and holding ground.
Rafael Loss is a policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations. He said that he wasn’t sure if Ukraine would be able to hold on to the territory of Kursk for much longer. The region, according to Loss, was “increasingly hard” to defend.
He said that if the Ukrainians could prove in the next few months that they won’t be cut off at Kursk, and if the Russian military situation inside Ukraine and across the front continued to deteriorate rapidly and at unsustainable rates, then that may very well be a part of the negotiation.
Loss continued, “I think that at this time the Kremlin is probably looking at trends that are bad for Russia but worse for Ukraine.”
President Biden has attempted to strengthen Ukraine’s hand in the anticipated negotiations. Ukraine has received $122 billion worth of assistance from the United States, including $66 billion in military aid.
At a press conference held in Paris on Wednesday, Secretary of State Antony Blinken said: “If the United States is going to supervise such a deal, we want to ensure that [Ukraine] does it from a strong position and President Trump can get the best possible deal.”
The final security aid from the Biden Administration was announced on Thursday. Several billions of dollars will remain for the Trump administration after Congress approves them.
Trump has given few details on how he would solve the conflict, but his top Ukraine representative, Keith Kellogg has threatened to reduce aid to get Kyiv at the table, and to increase weapons if Moscow became an obstacle to the talks.
According to reports, the main point of the talks is that Russia would reportedly claim the four territories in eastern Ukraine it occupies as a trade for Ukraine’s security.
Robert Kagan, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution said that Ukraine “will likely lose the war in the next 12-18 months” and that Putin was not interested in genuine negotiations to keep Ukraine intact.
In an article for The Atlantic, he said, “Ukraine won’t lose in a nice negotiated way. Vital territories will be sacrificed, but a sovereign and independent Ukraine will remain alive. Western security guarantees are there to protect it.” “It now faces a total defeat, loss of sovereignty and complete Russian control.”
Kagan said Trump must choose between “accepting a humiliating defeat on the international stage or immediately redoubling American assistance for Ukraine while time is still available.”
Since the Kursk invasion in Ukraine, there have been questions about whether the operation is pulling vital arms and manpower away from the frontlines in the east where Russians continue to advance, especially in the Donetsk area.
Zelensky, along with other Ukrainian officials, insisted that the Kursk assault was crucial in redirecting Russian forces from the frontlines, destroying military assets, creating the opportunity for prisoner swaps, and capturing ground that could be used for negotiation.
Brock Bierman is a visiting senior fellow with the German Marshall Fund. He said that the limited nature and the Kursk operation could indicate Ukraine testing out Russia’s capability, which may lead to an offensive maneuver.
Bierman said that Ukraine would also benefit from any efforts to improve its position, “as time approaches for the Trump administration’s takeover.”
He said that both Russia and Ukraine would do everything they could to prepare for the Trump administration. “Once Trump is in office, they will be more focused on their bottom line,” he added. “I see both sides trying to leverage everything they can, because Trump will, in essence, end this conflict one way or another.”