German Regional Election Delivers Severe Blow to Chancellor Merz’s Governing Coalition

Far-right Alternative for Germany secured a commanding victory in Sunday’s regional elections in Saxony-Anhalt, marking what could become the first far-right state government in Germany since the end of World War II.

The election results represent a seismic shift in German politics. Alternative for Germany, known by its German acronym AfD, captured approximately 44 percent of the vote in the eastern state, more than doubling its performance from five years ago in this region of 2.1 million residents west of Berlin.

Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s center-right Christian Democratic Union suffered a devastating defeat, polling at just 18 percent and losing roughly half its previous support. The CDU has governed Saxony-Anhalt for 24 years, making this loss particularly significant for the embattled chancellor.

Ulrich Siegmund, the 35-year-old AfD candidate for governor, declared that his party had “written history.” Speaking to broadcasters, Siegmund said voters had sent an unmistakable message that “things cannot carry on like this” and characterized the results as “a signal toward Berlin.”

Siegmund did not mince words regarding the chancellor, stating that “a very good campaigner for us in this election campaign was Friedrich Merz. Every day this man is in the chancellery is one too many.”

The critical question now facing German politics is whether AfD can overcome the so-called firewall, the informal agreement among mainstream parties refusing to form governing coalitions with the far-right party. AfD entered the election seeking an absolute majority in the state legislature that would enable it to govern independently. Final results were still being tabulated late Sunday evening.

A state government would represent the most significant achievement in the anti-migration party’s 13-year existence. The victory comes during widespread discontent with the national government’s handling of Germany’s sluggish economy and immigration policies.

Unlike other European nations that have seen right-wing populist parties assume power at various levels of government, modern Germany has steadfastly avoided far-right leadership at the national, state, or major municipal level. This resistance stems from the nation’s historical reckoning with its Nazi past.

AfD currently serves as the largest opposition party in Germany’s national parliament and draws its strongest support from the formerly communist eastern regions, where economic prosperity has lagged behind western Germany. Saxony-Anhalt exemplifies this eastern stronghold.

The domestic intelligence agency has classified AfD’s regional branch in Saxony-Anhalt as a proven right-wing extremist organization, citing members’ denigration of migrants from Muslim countries among other concerns. The party advocates for “remigration,” a politically charged term referring to the mass deportation of immigrants.

In a neighboring state, an AfD leader has faced legal challenges, appealing two convictions for knowingly using Nazi slogans. The party vehemently rejects all accusations of extremism, characterizing such claims as politically motivated attacks.

The election’s other casualties included the Left Party, the center-left Social Democrats, and the Greens, each polling around 9 percent. This fragmentation of the traditional political spectrum underscores the dramatic realignment occurring in German politics.

The results in Saxony-Anhalt may serve as a harbinger for national politics. As economic anxieties persist and immigration remains a contentious issue, Germany faces questions about whether its postwar political consensus can withstand populist pressures that have reshaped governments across Europe.

For now, Germany watches and waits to see whether AfD can translate electoral success into actual governance, potentially breaking a taboo that has defined German democracy for nearly eight decades.