The expanding conflict with Iran threatens to trigger widespread food shortages across Africa’s most vulnerable regions, according to the chief executive of the world’s largest fertilizer company.
Svein Tore Holsether, who leads Yara International, delivered a stark warning to world leaders this week about the cascading consequences of disrupted fertilizer supplies. The Norwegian multinational, operating plants in 60 countries with sales reaching 140 nations, finds itself at the center of a developing crisis that could leave millions without adequate food supplies.
The concern centers on what Holsether describes as a global auction for fertilizer, where soaring prices would effectively price out the world’s poorest nations. Africa, despite its agricultural potential, remains heavily dependent on food imports and lacks the financial resources to compete in such a market.
“The most important thing we can do now is raise the alarm on what we are seeing right now,” Holsether stated. “There is a risk of a global auction on fertilizer that means it becomes unaffordable for those most vulnerable.”
The numbers paint a troubling picture. Approximately 35 percent of the world’s urea supply, a critical fertilizer ingredient, originates from Gulf states. Since American and Israeli military operations against Iran commenced in late February, urea prices have surged between 60 and 70 percent. For nations already operating on thin margins, such increases prove catastrophic.
Holsether emphasized that while Europe faces no immediate threat of famine, the developed world must recognize the human cost of market dynamics. “We need to be aware of who we are taking the food away from,” he said.
The supply chain disruptions extend beyond simple price increases. S&P Global’s financial intelligence division reports that the impact has deepened significantly into global supply networks. Chris Rogers, heading supply chain research at S&P Global Market Intelligence, noted the variable but severe exposure across African nations, with Ethiopia and Kenya facing particularly acute vulnerability in sub-Saharan Africa.
The crisis compounds through multiple channels. Fertilizer production facilities face inventory constraints, limiting their ability to stockpile supplies during uncertain times. Meanwhile, ammonia supplies, fundamental to nitrogen-based fertilizer production, have been severely disrupted by the conflict. The toxic nature of ammonia makes wartime storage exceptionally hazardous, forcing producers to limit inventories precisely when demand peaks.
Holsether traveled to London specifically to engage world leaders before the situation deteriorates beyond control. While stopping short of predicting imminent famine, his message carries unmistakable urgency about the trajectory of current events.
Africa’s position in this crisis represents a profound irony. The continent possesses substantial agricultural potential, theoretically capable of achieving not merely self-sufficiency but export capacity. Yet current realities reveal massive food import dependency, leaving these nations exposed to global market volatility they cannot influence and can scarcely afford.
The fertilizer executive’s warning arrives at a critical juncture. Action taken now might prevent the worst outcomes, but delay risks allowing market forces to create humanitarian catastrophe in regions least equipped to withstand such shocks. The question facing policymakers involves whether international cooperation can ensure fertilizer reaches those who need it most, rather than simply those who can pay the most.
And that is the way it is.
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